In each model specification, the coefficient on the contract indicator is negative and is very different from zero. Note that the coefficients in survival models express changes in probability for an event, i.e. the hazard rate. Here, the event is defined as an agreement that has expired. Therefore, a negative coefficient indicates a decrease in the likelihood that an agreement will be struck down when it is entered into as a contract. The results suggest that contracts take much longer than executive agreements and that the difference in sustainability is neither the result of arbitrary technical agreements nor a by-product of a decision-making process primarily motivated by the Senate seat card. Now let`s look at the case of executive agreements alone. As noted above, the TIF does not distinguish between the executive agreements of Congress, although the estimated share of the first agreements is between 5 and 6% of all agreements. To take into account the fact that some international instruments are exclusive executive agreements that should be excluded from the analysis, this study uses a sensitivity analysis. Footnote 102 29 Bradley, supra note 9, with 90 (“Most scholars … believes that the presidential power to enter into exclusive executive agreements is much narrower than the presidential power to enter into contracts pursuant to Article II.” Louis Henkin, Foreign Affairs and the United States Constitution (1996) (describes the view that the President will seek Senate approval only for “cautious” reasons, as “unacceptable”). While language implies that Congress approves the globe agreement, it is difficult to read an explicit authorization in the statute.
In addition, the reproduced part of the act is the only time globe is mentioned and contains a total of 97 words. However, the entire legislation is more than 10,000 words long and was passed by a single roll-call vote in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Footnote 111 Even if it were read as an ex-post authorization from GLOBE, the authorisation text would represent less than 1% of the total text of the law. Outside of trade, provisions like this, in which ex-post-congress executive agreements are supposed to be approved as a small part of a broader legislative package, are the rule, not the exception. Footnote 112 The result is an authorisation procedure that is remarkably different from the contract consultation and approval procedure. The latter focuses the total and indisputable attention of the Senate on the adoption of the agreement itself and does not directly link its success to the future of other political transpositions. Therefore, it is not certain that ex-post-congress executive agreements could consistently offer the same benefits as those granted by the treaty. As has already been said, empirical analyses can only provide an informative answer to this question when the ex-post executive agreement is observed more frequently and in a wider range of topics. Before conducting the analysis, it is important to correct any limitations of this file.
Although TIF is the most comprehensive collection of international agreements to date, there is no data set listing each previous international agreement reached by the United States. Footnote 78 Researchers may try to supplement TIF with other contract collections to establish a more complete list of agreements. However, this is neither desirable nor feasible for several reasons. This section presents the results of the analysis. First of all, I consider the differences between contracts and executive agreements in general, without distinguishing between different types of executive agreements. I will check whether the results change if I continue to review the various executive agreements, the ex ante agreements between congresses and the ex post-Congress executive agreements.
